Carry plus beta versus a 5% daily box
2.47 lots lose about $16.50 per pip. An 80-pip risk-off candle is $1,320. 4.95 lots would be $2,640. ATR 75 to 125 pips makes a full 1% ticket a one-day event if Nasdaq dumps.
connect your MT5 account to Venasri and default 2.47 lots. Flatten or cut 50% into RBA and into 13:25 UTC if you are not explicitly trading the equity open. Equity Guard at 3.5% catches the unwind that starts in Asia and finishes in New York.
The 100.00 magnet and dual overnight banks
100.00 is a political handle as much as a technical one. BoJ chatter plus RBA on the same night is a two-sided gap. Do not straddle 100.00 with 2.47 lots and a 30-pip stop and call it mean reversion.
China headlines still hit the Aussie leg. If copper is already limit-down, AUDJPY is not a "yen view." Skip or short only if that is the actual thesis, at half size.
One risk-on budget with Nasdaq and Kiwi
AUDJPY, NAS100, AUDUSD, NZDUSD share beta. Combined 0.50%. The Half-Kelly Lot Size Calculator & Equity Guard needs pip 6.70 and a 30-pip default, plus a basket cap against indices.
Swing 65 to 105 pips at ~1.40 lots. Intraday 25 to 42 at 2.47. Asian scalps 12 to 20 only when spread is under 0.8 and 100.00 is not the battlefield.
AUDJPY checklist: Asia clock, 100.00, no NAS stack, dual CB clear
Require 00:00 to 05:00 UTC or a deliberate NY beta trade, RBA/BoJ clear, unused Nasdaq budget, spread under 1.2, 30-pip-class stop. Reject leftover overnight 4.95 lots into 13:30 UTC.
Save it on the Pre-Trade AI Confluence Checklist. Manual Trade Guard attaches 30 pips on fill so a carry unwind cannot leave a naked ticket while you sleep toward the cash open.
