Overlap ATR versus the daily floor
2.26 lots lose about $16.60 per pip. A 60-pip EIA-plus-ECB overlap candle is $1,000. 4.53 lots would be $2,000. ATR 75 to 115 pips means a 1% ticket is most of a lively overlap day.
connect your MT5 account to Venasri and default 2.26 lots. Black out ECB, BoC, and EIA independently. Equity Guard at 3.5% catches the stacked timestamp you only marked as "oil."
When opposite legs are the setup
Euro yields up, WTI down: long EURCAD is the clean expression. Euro yields down, WTI up: short EURCAD. When both risk-on together, this cross chops and 0.7 to 1.5 pip spreads tax the chop. That filter is the edge. Without it, skip the pair.
Tokyo EURCAD is leftover. Do not import an Asia-session habit from AUDJPY.
One euro-versus-energy budget
EURUSD, USDCAD, USOIL, EURCAD, CADJPY share parts of the story. Combined 0.50%. Put 7.35 and 30 pips in the Half-Kelly Lot Size Calculator & Equity Guard as an EURCAD preset.
Swing 65 to 100 pips at ~1.35 lots when the H4 oil-versus-euro split is obvious. Intraday 25 to 40 at 2.26 in the overlap. Scalp 12 to 20 only under 1.0 pip spread.
EURCAD checklist: overlap clock, oil-yield split, EIA/ECB clear, single cluster
Require 12:00 to 16:00 UTC, WTI versus euro-yield disagreement, unused energy/euro budget, calendars clear, spread under 1.5, 30-pip-class stop, 1.49-area figures.
Save it on the Pre-Trade AI Confluence Checklist. Manual Trade Guard attaches 30 pips on fill so an EIA tick cannot leave 4.53 lots hanging across the rest of the overlap.
