Overnight 5.55 lots versus a 5% daily box
5.55 lots lose $55.50 per pip. A 40-pip RBNZ fill is $2,220, already 2.2% with slippage room toward 3%. 2.77 lots keeps that event near 1.1% if you insist on holding, which you should not on decision day.
connect your MT5 account to Venasri and flatten Kiwi before 01:45 UTC on RBNZ mornings. Equity Guard at 3.5% is for the dairy print you did not have on the calendar.
London is not the Kiwi problem
NZDUSD has fewer 07:00 UTC fakeouts than GBPUSD. That is true and still irrelevant if you size like London is the risk. Wellington is the risk. NY is the USD overlay. London is mostly drift.
Use H4/D1 persistence. If the daily is trending, take 15 to 25 pip pullbacks in Wellington or NY. If the daily is a 40-pip mess, Kiwi is not your profit-target pair this week.
Aussie plus Kiwi is one ticket
Correlation Guard on AUDUSD + NZDUSD + gold. Combined 0.50%. The Half-Kelly Lot Size Calculator & Equity Guard should show one commodity-dollar budget. 2.77 Kiwi lots plus 2.50 Aussie lots is a 1% stacked bet.
Evaluation default 2.77 lots, 18-pip stop, Wellington or NY only. Swing 40 to 60 pips at ~1.70 lots overnight, and zero lots through RBNZ.
Kiwi checklist: RBNZ, spread, Aussie budget, home session
Require RBNZ/dairy clear, spread under 1.0, unused Aussie budget, H4 slope, 0.6000-area figures. Reject 5.55 lots in a 1.2 pip overnight quote.
Park it on the Pre-Trade AI Confluence Checklist. Manual Trade Guard pins the 15 to 25 pip stop so a thin kiwi spike cannot leave a naked 5.55 lot ticket on the book.
