Intervention math versus a 5% daily box
At $6.70 per pip, 4.95 lots lose about $33 per pip. A 150-pip intervention candle is roughly $5,000, which is the entire 5% daily limit on $100,000. The 30-pip stop you entered is a suggestion to the market, not a fill.
Stay at 2.47 lots (0.50%) and flatten into official yen warnings. connect your MT5 account to Venasri so Equity Guard can close USDJPY near 3.0% on days when 150.00 is being defended. That 2% leftover is the intervention buffer, not unused buying power.
Gotobi, Treasury auctions, and stacking with gold
Tokyo Gotobi fixing (00:55 UTC) is a known shove. US 10-year auctions during 12:30 to 16:00 UTC reprice the pair without a "news" flag on some calendars. Both are prop events.
Long gold plus short USDJPY is often one real-yield trade. If XAUUSD is open, USDJPY does not automatically get 2.47 lots. Cut or skip. Risk-off days hit NAS100 and USDJPY together as well; do not discover that correlation after the daily limit is gone.
Set pip value to 6.70 in the guard, then cap the basket
Wrong pip value is a silent breach. If Equity Guard thinks USDJPY is $10/pip, it will flatten too early or too late. Fix the contract in the Half-Kelly Lot Size Calculator & Equity Guard at $6.70 (or live conversion) and cap USD longs as a group: USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF.
Intraday stops 28 to 45 pips. Swing 70 to 120 only at 1.00 to 1.50 lots so a 90-pip night gap cannot close the firm. 00 and 50 yen handles are where intervention chat clusters; do not rest the stop exactly on 150.00.
USDJPY checklist: yields, 150 handle, Tokyo or NY, no MoF
Require 10-year yield agreement, distance from 150.00, Tokyo or Treasury hours, spread under 0.7, and a blank BoJ calendar. Reject "fade the spike" entries after an official warning.
Keep that list on the Pre-Trade AI Confluence Checklist. Manual Trade Guard must attach the 30-pip stop in milliseconds because this pair can travel that far in one Treasury block trade.
