Capacity tables for 3%, 4%, 5% daily and 6%, 8%, 10% max
Daily capacity at 0.35% risk: 3% Stellar daily holds 8 stops, 4% Maven holds 11, 5% FTMO holds 14. At 0.50%: 6, 8, and 10 stops. At 1.00%: 3, 4, and 5. At 2.00%: 1, 2, and 2. Max-drawdown capacity at 0.50%: 6% FundedNext 1-Step holds 12, 8% some 1-steps hold 16, 10% FTMO holds 20. At 1.00% those become 6, 8, and 10. If your last 200-trade sample contains a 9-loss cluster, 1.00% daily on FTMO is already a design failure.
Independent-trial probability of k losses in a row is (1 - W)^k. At W = 0.54, loss rate = 0.46. P(8) = 0.46^8 = 0.0020 (0.20%). P(10) = 0.46^10 = 0.00043 (0.043%). Those tails are small per attempt but not small across 250 trading days: expected 8-loss clusters per year is not zero. Design for the tail you will eventually roll.
Fixed 0.50% versus Venasri drawdown scaling after two losers
A $10,000 challenge at 1.50% looks harmless until six losers print -9.0% and kiss a 10% max. Drop to 0.40% on small books: daily 5% holds 12 stops. Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard can enforce that drop automatically when rolling MAE or a two-loss streak trips the multiplier.
Gold 62-point wicks: when one loss is not 1.0R
Streak math assumes every loss is -1.0R. XAUUSD slippage through a 50-point stop into 62 points on 0.10 lots is $620 versus $500 planned, or -1.24R. Five such gold slides: -6.2R, which at 0.50% planned is -3.1% plus extra 0.60% = -3.70%, not -2.50%. Feed the calculator an "adverse R" of 1.20 if you trade gold or NAS100 at the cash open, then recompute capacity: 5% / (0.50% x 1.20) = 8.3, so plan for 8 gold losers, not 10.
Venasri Performance Analytics already stores MAE. If median losing MAE is 1.15R, use 1.15 as the streak unit. Do not use the brochure -1.0R.
Stop trading when capacity remaining is two stops
If FTMO daily room is $5,000 and you have spent $3,900, remaining is $1,100, which is 2.2 planned 0.50% stops. That is the session halt, not "one more London setup." 24/7 MT5 Bot Control can block new entries when remaining daily budget < 2 x planned dollar risk, while Equity Guard still flatten-closes if a live ticket gaps through the last buffer.
start free on Venasri and combine this streak tool with the pass probability simulator. A high pass rate at 0.50% and a 9-loss historical cluster at 1.00% is the same engine with two different funeral timings.
