Absorbing barriers: +10% target versus 5% daily and 10% max
Each path is a sequence of +R or -1R (or -1.2R adverse) steps of size RiskPercent until equity hits +Target, -Daily from the day stamp, or -Max from initial. FTMO 2-Step Phase 1: Target 10% ($10,000), Daily 5% ($5,000), Max 10% ($10,000). At 0.50% ($500) and 2.20R, a win is +$1,100, a loss -$500. Expected trades to +10% if there were no floors: 10000 / (0.54 x 1100 - 0.46 x 500) = 10000 / 364 ≈ 27.5 trades. Daily barrier is 10 losses in one server day; max is 20 losses total. Those barriers, not the 27-trade expectation, dominate live outcomes.
FundedNext Stellar 1-Step: 10% target, 3% daily, 6% max. Capacity at 0.50% is 6 daily stops and 12 max stops. Pass probability falls versus FTMO even with the same edge because the max barrier is closer. Always select the firm preset before you trust a 78% headline.
Worked contrast: 0.50% versus 2.00% at the same 54% / 2.20R
0.50% path: daily capacity 10, max 20, typical pass in 20 to 40 trades if the 5% day never prints an 8-loss cluster. 2.00% path: a win is +$4,400, so two wins are +8.8% and a third passes 10%. Two losses are -4.0%, a third loss is -6.0% and already through the 5% daily if they share a date. Monte Carlo weight shifts from "grind 30 trades" to "coin-flip three tickets." That is why Venasri defaults 0.35% to 0.50% on $100,000 books even when Kelly screams higher.
Include a 1.15x slippage factor on gold paths. Pass rates drop several points because some "survivable" 10-loss days become 8-loss days. Venasri Performance Analytics should feed measured MAE into this simulator, not a brochure -1.0R.
Minimum days, consistency, and news blackouts as extra filters
If the firm requires 4 minimum trading days, a path that hits +10% on day 2 still needs two more sessions of tiny risk or it fails admin, not math. Consistency 40% on some 1-steps means a single +6% day toward an 8% target is 75% of profit and can freeze graduation. Model a daily profit lock at +1.8% so BestDay cannot dominate. Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard already supports that lock.
News blackouts remove 30 minutes around CPI/NFP/FOMC. That reduces trade count, which slightly lowers pass speed and slightly lowers daily-cluster risk. Net effect on pass probability is usually small versus the risk-percent lever.
Turn a high pass rate into an MT5 rule set
If the simulator says 0.50% / 2.2R / 54% is your lane, freeze those three numbers for the whole Challenge. 24/7 MT5 Bot Control refuses 1.50% "conviction" tickets. Equity Guard auto-flattens at 4.25% daily. start free on Venasri before day one so the first revenge cluster cannot spend the Monte Carlo edge.
Re-run after 40 live trades with updated W and R. If W fell to 48% at 1.60R, pass probability at 0.50% may drop into the 40s and the correct response is to pause, not to raise risk to "catch up" to the 10% line.
