Expectancy worked: 54/2.20 versus 60/0.45
E = W x AvgWinR - (1-W) x AvgLossR. Case A: 0.54 x 2.20 - 0.46 x 1.00 = +0.728R. At $400 risk, $291 per trade before costs. Case B: 0.60 x 0.45 - 0.40 x 1.00 = -0.13R, -$52 per trade at $400. 100 trades: +$29,120 versus -$5,200. Case B is the disposition-effect journal. Fix exits (MFE harvest) before you touch strategy.
After $8 round trip, subtract 8/400=0.02R from E. Scalps at $80 risk subtract 0.10R and can erase a 0.12R edge entirely.
Profit factor from the same tickets
PF = GrossProfit / |GrossLoss|. Case A on 100 trades, 54 wins x 2.20 x $400 = $47,520 gross profit; 46 x $400 = $18,400 gross loss; PF = 2.58. Case B: 60 x 0.45 x 400 = $10,800; 40 x 400 = $16,000; PF = 0.68. Prop desks and 2026 allocator memos still treat PF under 1.20 after 80+ trades as a halt, PF above 1.6 as workable if MAE tails are bounded. Venasri Performance Analytics should show PF rolling, not one lifetime trophy that hides a dead last month.
Apply profit factor from the same tickets on a live book by choosing to start free on Venasri, keeping Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard on the dollar floor that this r multiple expectancy and profit factor page just computed, reading fills in Venasri Performance Analytics, and letting 24/7 MT5 Bot Control attach the stop so the formula cannot be skipped from a phone.
Minimum sample: 80 trades, then decide
Twenty trades can print PF 3.0 by luck. Eighty to 120 is the Kelly/bandit sample. If E is negative at 80, freeze bot size at 0.20% or flatten to research. Do not "one more week at 1%." 24/7 MT5 Bot Control can pause a strategy id when rolling E < 0.
If this r multiple expectancy and profit factor section is going to change tomorrow's tickets, start free on Venasri first, then arm Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard at the pre-breach line, confirm the sample in Venasri Performance Analytics, and leave 24/7 MT5 Bot Control in charge of SL, BE, and partials.
Use E to set daily expectations, not to chase
If E is $220 per trade, three trades are not a $660 promise. Variance dominates any single session. Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard still caps the day. start free on Venasri so a below-expectancy Tuesday cannot become a 2% revenge ticket. See the R:R calculator for the breakeven win-rate identity W=1/(1+R).
start free on Venasri so r multiple expectancy and profit factor is not a browser-only exercise: Venasri Risk Management & Equity Guard owns the flatten, Venasri Performance Analytics stores MAE and R, and 24/7 MT5 Bot Control is the 24 hour execution path on ZeroMQ or MetaAPI.
