Daily-limit math when the "safe" pair is oversized
$5,000 daily room at $10 per pip is 500 pips of 1.00-lot euro travel, or 100 pips on 5.00 lots. ATR is 55 to 85 pips, so a full 5.00 lot position that is wrong for one average day is already a 2.75% to 4.25% hit. That is legal 1% risk only if the 20-pip stop actually fills at 20 pips.
Run 2.50 lots as the evaluation default (0.50% at 20 pips). connect your MT5 account to Venasri and set Equity Guard near 3.5% so an ECB press-conference slippage event cannot walk the rest of the 5% floor.
ECB, NFP, and the quiet pair that is not quiet
Frankfurt 07:00 UTC is a real open, not a fakeout factory like NAS100 at 9:30 AM ET. The mistake is fading the first 07:00 drive because "EURUSD mean reverts." It does, on H4. It does not, on the ECB statement candle.
US CPI and NFP at 12:30 UTC still own this pair. If you hold 2.50 lots into the print, pre-define the invalidation in dollars ($500 at 20 pips) and accept that fill may be 30 pips. If that extra 10 pips would put you inside 2% of daily loss, you are too large for news. Flat is a position.
USD-short stacking: euro, Cable, and Swissy
EURUSD correlates with GBPUSD and inversely with USDCHF. Correlation Guard should treat a long euro plus short Swissy as double USD-short. Cap the basket at 0.50% combined, not 0.50% each.
Put the dollar math in the Half-Kelly Lot Size Calculator & Equity Guard. If euro is 2.50 lots, Cable is 0.00 until euro is closed, or both are cut to 1.25-lot equivalents. This is how funded accounts survive NFP week.
EURUSD gates: figure, session, spread, no fix
Trade 00 and 50 figures during 07:00 to 10:00 or 12:00 to 15:30 UTC, spread under 0.6, H4 aligned, and no ECB/CPI inside 30 minutes. Skip 16:00 UTC fixing flow.
Store that list on the Pre-Trade AI Confluence Checklist. EURUSD is the easiest pair to overtrade because fills are cheap. Cheap fills plus 5.00 lots is still a prop problem.
